To finish catching up on the major events I missed, here's a rundown of the major events in the WCHA.
1. Bemidji State had an poor finish to the regular season, going 0-3-1 against North Dakota and Minnesota. Consequentially, they fell below the TUC cliff. This has a major impact on the NCAA picture. North Dakota 4 wins in the TUC category, which presently is costing them the overall 2-seed to Boston College. Should Boston College and North Dakota both win out, their comparison will hinge on their TUC records, as North Dakota will have a better RPI and Boston College will have a better record against common opponents. Boston College will have the superior TUC record if Bemidji State winds up below the cliff and North Dakota will have the superior TUC record if Bemidji State winds up above the cliff. So the overall 2-seed could well hinge on how well Bemidji State performs in the WCHA tournament. Is this stupid and arbitrary? Yes. But that is how the Pairwise works.
Furthermore, Bemidji State's finish will affect several other teams. Wisconsin's fight for a tournament bid would be aided if Bemidji State winds up above the cliff, as they have a 2-0-0 record against Bemidji. On the other hand Nebraska-Omaha, Colorado College, and Union are rooting for Bemidji to lose, as they have 0-3-1, 0-1-1, and 0-1-0 records against Bemidji respectively. Colorado College is in a tough fight for an NCAA bid and Union will see a number of comparisons at risk, particularly, their comparison with Miami, should Bemidji finish above the cliff. Meanwhile, Nebraska-Omaha will face off with Bemidji in the first round of the WCHAs. Should UNO win the series, Bemidji will remain below the cliff. However, should they lose the series, UNO will be at risk of falling to a 3 or 4-seed, depending on whether or not Bemidji can remain above the cliff after the Final Five and how well everyone else does. As such, the Bemidji-UNO series ranks among the most important series in college hockey this weekend, as it will have a significant impact on the bubble, as well as the seeding of most teams securely in the tournament other than Yale, who controls their own destiny with regard to grabbing the overall 1-seed.
2. Minnesota State finished their regular season 1-3-0 against Minnesota-Duluth and Alaska-Anchorage, knocking them to the brink of falling off the TUC cliff and an opening series against Denver. This creates one of the stupid Pairwise scenarios where Denver will be better off winning the series 2-1 rather than sweeping it. Why? Because should Minnesota State win one game, they'll finish above the TUC cliff and Denver will be able to count what would be a 5-1-1 record against Minnesota State to their TUC record, making it 17-10-3. However, if they sweep Minnesota State, Denver will lose credit for their wins over Minnesota State in the TUC category and their TUC record will fall to 12-9-3. This would likely cost them comparisons with Union and Miami (assuming they win their series this weekend), knocking them into a three way tie for eighth in the Pairwise. While Denver could still recover their standing by winning the WCHA tournament, they would need Michigan, Merrimack, and Union to have some serious missteps to get a 1-seed. Furthermore, as they would automatically advance to the semis, a single loss in the Final Five could force them into a 3-seed. So this situation really sucks for Denver, although their situation wouldn't be so precarious if they had swept one of their previous four series (their loss to Michigan Tech being particularly egregious).
3. Colorado College finished 2-1-1, going 1-0-1 against Minnesota-Duluth and splitting on the road with Wisconsin. Minnesota-Duluth, who finished the regular season 3-4-3, is currently in position for a 3-seed, although they could easily rise in standing with a strong showing in the WCHA tournament. Colorado College's good finish to the regular season has them on the right side of the bubble, while Wisconsin's absolutely atrocious 1-6-1 finish to the regular season has them barely on the bubble. Colorado College and Wisconsin will face off in the first round of the WCHA tournament, with both team's tournament hopes riding on the outcome. Colorado College could conceivably claim a bid by winning the series, although they will probably need a win in the Final Five if they don't record a sweep. Wisconsin, on the other hand, will need to drive deep into the WCHA tournament if they are going to claim a bid, and may well need to win the whole thing.
4. Alaska-Anchorage had a strong 3-1-0 finish to the season against Alaska and Minnesota State. As such, they secured their status as a TUC. This is good news for Union and every WCHA team that is competing for or has secured a NCAA bid except Colorado College, who is 1-3-0 against Alaska-Anchorage. Alaska-Anchorage will travel to Minnesota in the first round of the WCHAs, a series Minnesota mut win (and probably sweep) to keep their at-large hopes alive.
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Monday, March 7, 2011
Catching Up...
I've been busy the last week and haven't been able to update until today, so here's a rundown of major happenings over the past couple weekends:
Hockey East
1. Merrimack hurt themselves badly after getting swept by Maine and splitting with Providence. This knocked Merrimack down to 8th in the Pairwise and 9th in the RPI. Maine, meanwhile, now looks to have a shot at a NCAA berth, although they'll need to do well in the Hockey East tournament tournament to get a bid, as they are currently tied for 18th in the Pairwise. Interestingly, Maine and Merrimack will face off in the first round of the Hockey East Tournament this weekend.
2. Boston University went 2-1-1 against two of the weaker Hockey East teams in Vermont and Northeastern, knocking them back to a tie for 16th in the Pairwise. They'll face Northeastern this week in the Hockey East Tournament. BU will need a strong performance in the HE tournament, or several teams to falter in order to get a bid to the NCAA Tournament, particularly as their TUC record isn't very strong at 5-7-5.
3. Boston College swept New Hampshire to claim the Hockey East regular season title. Boston College is looking like a very probable 1-seed and could even claim the #1 overall seed by winning out and some missteps by Yale and North Dakota. Meanwhile, New Hampshire needs to sweep their weekend against Vermont to ensure a spot in the tournament, having fallen to 12th in the Pairwise.
ECAC
1. Rensselaer's season probably ended after being swept by an abysmal Colgate team in the first round of the ECAC tournament. As a result, they fell to a tie for 16th in the Pairwise and will need help from a bunch of teams in order to luck their way into the tournament.
2. Dartmouth's regular season ended with a poor 1-3-0 record against mediocre to bad ECAC teams, which leaves them at 13th place in the Pairwise (primarily because the other teams fighting for an NCAA bid also had crappy ends to their regular season). As such, Dartmouth needs to win their series against Harvard to keep their hopes of an NCAA bid alive.
3. Quinnipiac had a strong past couple weeks, scoring ties against Union and Rensselaer and sweeping Brown. This means that they will, in all probability, finish above the TUC cliff even if Cornell sweeps them this weekend, which will irritate every potential tournament team not in the ECAC and infuriate Nebraska-Omaha, who they swept early in the season.
4. Cornell ended their season poorly with losses to Brown and Yale, which has driven them to the cusp of the TUC cliff. If Cornell sweeps their series against Quinnipiac, they'll probably finish above the cliff. Should they be swept, they'll end their season below the cliff. But should the series go three games, then they could finish on either side depending on how Championship week plays out. Suffice to say that the Quinnipiac-Cornell series will be the most interesting this week that features no teams fighting for NCAA position (a big qualifier, to be sure, but whatever).
CCHA
1. Michigan swept Northern Michigan while Notre Dame split with Western Michigan, giving Michigan the CCHA regular season title. Meanwhile, Western has moved into a tie for 14th in the Pairwise, meaning that if the season ended today, they would rank among the last teams to make it into the NCAA field. Western Michigan has a huge series with Ferris State this weekend as Ferris State will not fall below the TUC cliff even if they are swept and Western will be in strong position for a bid with a sweep and throw away a chance at a bid should they get swept.
2. Lake Superior swept Ohio State, ending Ohio State's season and knocking them below the TUC cliff. This is great news for Miami, Notre Dame, and Western Michigan, all of whom had their TUC records pulled down by Ohio State. Ironically, the only team particularly upset about this is Michigan, who posted a 3-1 record against Ohio State and was very much hoping would stay above the cliff. Lake Superior, meanwhile could potentially rise above the cliff if they win their series against Notre Dame and win a game in the CCHA Championship rounds (either their semi or the consolation game...or both, obviously).
3. Northern Michigan had a miserable end to their season, getting swept by Michigan to end the regular season and losing their opening round series with Bowling Green. This is unfortunate for Michigan (not a good week for them), Miami, Notre Dame, Western Michigan, and Denverall of whom had good records against Northern.
4. Alaska split with Alaska-Anchorage to end the regular season and followed that up with a sweep of Michigan State with back to back overtime victories. This didn't affect the tournament picture much (all it did was secure Alaska as a TUC and kept MSU from becoming a TUC), but it does mark the end of Rick Comley's storied career.
Atlantic Hockey
The underdog in every first round tournament game managed to win and advance to the best-of-three quarterfinal. Eventually, Atlantic Hockey may decide to be sensible and get rid of their geographical seeding system that results in weird things like having the bottom 4 teams paired up with each other and the middle 4 teams paired up with each other. As a result, we see things like American International and Sacred Heart, two of the worst teams in college hockey, advance to the quarterfinals with wins over teams that are nearly as bad in Army and Bentley, while decent teams like Robert Morris get stuck playing another decent team in Mercyhurst.
...
I'm pretty sure the people who came up with the Pairwise rankings are the same people who devised this tournament structure.
I'll cover the WCHA in a later post, as pretty much every team in the conference impacted the national picture in one way or another over the past couple weeks.
Hockey East
1. Merrimack hurt themselves badly after getting swept by Maine and splitting with Providence. This knocked Merrimack down to 8th in the Pairwise and 9th in the RPI. Maine, meanwhile, now looks to have a shot at a NCAA berth, although they'll need to do well in the Hockey East tournament tournament to get a bid, as they are currently tied for 18th in the Pairwise. Interestingly, Maine and Merrimack will face off in the first round of the Hockey East Tournament this weekend.
2. Boston University went 2-1-1 against two of the weaker Hockey East teams in Vermont and Northeastern, knocking them back to a tie for 16th in the Pairwise. They'll face Northeastern this week in the Hockey East Tournament. BU will need a strong performance in the HE tournament, or several teams to falter in order to get a bid to the NCAA Tournament, particularly as their TUC record isn't very strong at 5-7-5.
3. Boston College swept New Hampshire to claim the Hockey East regular season title. Boston College is looking like a very probable 1-seed and could even claim the #1 overall seed by winning out and some missteps by Yale and North Dakota. Meanwhile, New Hampshire needs to sweep their weekend against Vermont to ensure a spot in the tournament, having fallen to 12th in the Pairwise.
ECAC
1. Rensselaer's season probably ended after being swept by an abysmal Colgate team in the first round of the ECAC tournament. As a result, they fell to a tie for 16th in the Pairwise and will need help from a bunch of teams in order to luck their way into the tournament.
2. Dartmouth's regular season ended with a poor 1-3-0 record against mediocre to bad ECAC teams, which leaves them at 13th place in the Pairwise (primarily because the other teams fighting for an NCAA bid also had crappy ends to their regular season). As such, Dartmouth needs to win their series against Harvard to keep their hopes of an NCAA bid alive.
3. Quinnipiac had a strong past couple weeks, scoring ties against Union and Rensselaer and sweeping Brown. This means that they will, in all probability, finish above the TUC cliff even if Cornell sweeps them this weekend, which will irritate every potential tournament team not in the ECAC and infuriate Nebraska-Omaha, who they swept early in the season.
4. Cornell ended their season poorly with losses to Brown and Yale, which has driven them to the cusp of the TUC cliff. If Cornell sweeps their series against Quinnipiac, they'll probably finish above the cliff. Should they be swept, they'll end their season below the cliff. But should the series go three games, then they could finish on either side depending on how Championship week plays out. Suffice to say that the Quinnipiac-Cornell series will be the most interesting this week that features no teams fighting for NCAA position (a big qualifier, to be sure, but whatever).
CCHA
1. Michigan swept Northern Michigan while Notre Dame split with Western Michigan, giving Michigan the CCHA regular season title. Meanwhile, Western has moved into a tie for 14th in the Pairwise, meaning that if the season ended today, they would rank among the last teams to make it into the NCAA field. Western Michigan has a huge series with Ferris State this weekend as Ferris State will not fall below the TUC cliff even if they are swept and Western will be in strong position for a bid with a sweep and throw away a chance at a bid should they get swept.
2. Lake Superior swept Ohio State, ending Ohio State's season and knocking them below the TUC cliff. This is great news for Miami, Notre Dame, and Western Michigan, all of whom had their TUC records pulled down by Ohio State. Ironically, the only team particularly upset about this is Michigan, who posted a 3-1 record against Ohio State and was very much hoping would stay above the cliff. Lake Superior, meanwhile could potentially rise above the cliff if they win their series against Notre Dame and win a game in the CCHA Championship rounds (either their semi or the consolation game...or both, obviously).
3. Northern Michigan had a miserable end to their season, getting swept by Michigan to end the regular season and losing their opening round series with Bowling Green. This is unfortunate for Michigan (not a good week for them), Miami, Notre Dame, Western Michigan, and Denverall of whom had good records against Northern.
4. Alaska split with Alaska-Anchorage to end the regular season and followed that up with a sweep of Michigan State with back to back overtime victories. This didn't affect the tournament picture much (all it did was secure Alaska as a TUC and kept MSU from becoming a TUC), but it does mark the end of Rick Comley's storied career.
Atlantic Hockey
The underdog in every first round tournament game managed to win and advance to the best-of-three quarterfinal. Eventually, Atlantic Hockey may decide to be sensible and get rid of their geographical seeding system that results in weird things like having the bottom 4 teams paired up with each other and the middle 4 teams paired up with each other. As a result, we see things like American International and Sacred Heart, two of the worst teams in college hockey, advance to the quarterfinals with wins over teams that are nearly as bad in Army and Bentley, while decent teams like Robert Morris get stuck playing another decent team in Mercyhurst.
...
I'm pretty sure the people who came up with the Pairwise rankings are the same people who devised this tournament structure.
I'll cover the WCHA in a later post, as pretty much every team in the conference impacted the national picture in one way or another over the past couple weeks.
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