Catching Up... WCHA Edition

To finish catching up on the major events I missed, here's a rundown of the major events in the WCHA.

1. Bemidji State had an poor finish to the regular season, going 0-3-1 against North Dakota and Minnesota. Consequentially, they fell below the TUC cliff. This has a major impact on the NCAA picture. North Dakota 4 wins in the TUC category, which presently is costing them the overall 2-seed to Boston College. Should Boston College and North Dakota both win out, their comparison will hinge on their TUC records, as North Dakota will have a better RPI and Boston College will have a better record against common opponents. Boston College will have the superior TUC record if Bemidji State winds up below the cliff and North Dakota will have the superior TUC record if Bemidji State winds up above the cliff. So the overall 2-seed could well hinge on how well Bemidji State performs in the WCHA tournament. Is this stupid and arbitrary? Yes. But that is how the Pairwise works.

Furthermore, Bemidji State's finish will affect several other teams. Wisconsin's fight for a tournament bid would be aided if Bemidji State winds up above the cliff, as they have a 2-0-0 record against Bemidji. On the other hand Nebraska-Omaha, Colorado College, and Union are rooting for Bemidji to lose, as they have 0-3-1, 0-1-1, and 0-1-0 records against Bemidji respectively. Colorado College is in a tough fight for an NCAA bid and Union will see a number of comparisons at risk, particularly, their comparison with Miami, should Bemidji finish above the cliff. Meanwhile, Nebraska-Omaha will face off with Bemidji in the first round of the WCHAs. Should UNO win the series, Bemidji will remain below the cliff. However, should they lose the series, UNO will be at risk of falling to a 3 or 4-seed, depending on whether or not Bemidji can remain above the cliff after the Final Five and how well everyone else does. As such, the Bemidji-UNO series ranks among the most important series in college hockey this weekend, as it will have a significant impact on the bubble, as well as the seeding of most teams securely in the tournament other than Yale, who controls their own destiny with regard to grabbing the overall 1-seed.

2. Minnesota State finished their regular season 1-3-0 against Minnesota-Duluth and Alaska-Anchorage, knocking them to the brink of falling off the TUC cliff and an opening series against Denver. This creates one of the stupid Pairwise scenarios where Denver will be better off winning the series 2-1 rather than sweeping it. Why? Because should Minnesota State win one game, they'll finish above the TUC cliff and Denver will be able to count what would be a 5-1-1 record against Minnesota State to their TUC record, making it 17-10-3. However, if they sweep Minnesota State, Denver will lose credit for their wins over Minnesota State in the TUC category and their TUC record will fall to 12-9-3. This would likely cost them comparisons with Union and Miami (assuming they win their series this weekend), knocking them into a three way tie for eighth in the Pairwise. While Denver could still recover their standing by winning the WCHA tournament, they would need Michigan, Merrimack, and Union to have some serious missteps to get a 1-seed. Furthermore, as they would automatically advance to the semis, a single loss in the Final Five could force them into a 3-seed. So this situation really sucks for Denver, although their situation wouldn't be so precarious if they had swept one of their previous four series (their loss to Michigan Tech being particularly egregious).

3.  Colorado College finished 2-1-1, going 1-0-1 against Minnesota-Duluth and splitting on the road with Wisconsin. Minnesota-Duluth, who finished the regular season 3-4-3, is currently in position for a 3-seed, although they could easily rise in standing with a strong showing in the WCHA tournament. Colorado College's good finish to the regular season has them on the right side of the bubble, while Wisconsin's absolutely atrocious 1-6-1 finish to the regular season has them barely on the bubble. Colorado College and Wisconsin will face off in the first round of the WCHA tournament, with both team's tournament hopes riding on the outcome. Colorado College could conceivably claim a bid by winning the series, although they will probably need a win in the Final Five if they don't record a sweep. Wisconsin, on the other hand, will need to drive deep into the WCHA tournament if they are going to claim a bid, and may well need to win the whole thing.

4. Alaska-Anchorage had a strong 3-1-0 finish to the season against Alaska and Minnesota State. As such, they secured their status as a TUC. This is good news for Union and every WCHA team that is competing for or has secured a NCAA bid except Colorado College, who is 1-3-0 against Alaska-Anchorage. Alaska-Anchorage will travel to Minnesota in the first round of the WCHAs, a series Minnesota mut win (and probably sweep) to keep their at-large hopes alive.