Bracketology: 2/18/11

Last week saw major changes to the Pairwise rankings, including the huge jump by Merrimack after their sweep of New Hampshire. As such, here are the current teams projected to be in the tournament, along with their overall seed and conference:

1. Yale (ECAC)
2. Boston College (HE)

3. North Dakota (WCHA)

4 (4t)*. Denver (WCHA)

5 (4t)*. Merrimack (HE)

6. Minnesota-Duluth (WCHA)

7 (7t)*. Union (ECAC)

8 (7t)*. Nebraska-Omaha (WCHA)

9 (9t)*. Notre Dame (CCHA)

10 (9t)*. Michigan (CCHA)

11 (9t)*. Miami (CCHA)

12 (12t)*. New Hampshire (HE)

13 (12t)*. Dartmouth (ECAC)

14. Rensselaer (ECAC)

15 (15t)**. Wisconsin (WCHA)

16. RIT (Projected AH champ)

Pairwise Rankings replicated from http://uscho.com

*All ties in the Pairwise, such as Denver and Merrimack, traditionally go to the team with the higher RPI. However, the NCAA can also break the tie by favoring the team which wins the head-to-head comparison, which Merrimack wins against Denver.
**Wisconsin is tied with Western Michigan in the Pairwise, but wins all tiebreakers for the comparison, thus putting them in the tournament. Western Michigan cannot make it because the Atlantic Hockey Conference gets an autobid and no Atlantic Hockey team is in the top 15, meaning that their champion will be automatically slated as the last overall seed.

To begin with, let's form a simple bracket in which we simply go with straight seeding:

East Regional-Bridgeport
1 (1). Yale (ECAC)*
4 (16). RIT (AH)**
2 (8). Nebraska-Omaha (WCHA)
3 (9). Notre Dame (CCHA)

West Regional-St. Louis
1 (2). Boston College (HE)
4 (15). Wisconsin (WCHA)**
2 (7). Union (ECAC)
3 (10). Michigan (CCHA)

Midwest Regional-Green Bay
1 (3). North Dakota (WCHA)
4 (14). Rensselaer (ECAC)
2 (6). Minnesota-Duluth (WCHA)**
3 (11). Miami (CCHA)**

Northeast Regional-Manchester
1 (4). Denver (WCHA)
4 (13). Dartmouth (ECAC)**
2 (5). Merrimack (HE)**
3 (12). New Hampshire (HE)*

*Denotes Host School. Host schools are automatically placed in the regional that they are hosting should they make the tournament. New Hampshire, for instance, is automatically placed in the Manchester Regional which they are hosting. On the other hand, Michigan Tech is hosting the Green Bay regional, but they will not be placed there as they will not make the tournament short of a miraculous run to win the WCHA tournament.
**Denotes team within 400 miles of site, thus allowing them to avoid flying per NCAA regulations.

This bracket has a myriad of problems. First of all, Merrimack cannot face New Hampshire in the first round by rule as that would be a intra-conference first-round matchup. Second of all, a lot of teams are flying that don't need to be. With some simple changes, such as switching Notre Dame with Michigan, we can rectify this issue. Thus, we produce this bracket:

East Regional-Bridgeport

1 (1). Yale (ECAC)*

4 (16). RIT (AH)**

2 (5). Merrimack (HE)**

3 (10). Michigan (CCHA)

West Regional-St. Louis

1 (2). Boston College (HE)

4 (15). Wisconsin (WCHA)**

2 (8). Nebraska-Omaha (WCHA)**
3 (9). Notre Dame (CCHA)**

Midwest Regional-Green Bay

1 (3). North Dakota (WCHA)

4 (14). Rensselaer (ECAC)

2 (6). Minnesota-Duluth (WCHA)**

3 (11). Miami (CCHA)**

Northeast Regional-Manchester

1 (4). Denver (WCHA)

4 (13). Dartmouth (ECAC)**

2 (7). Union (ECAC)**

3 (12). New Hampshire (HE)*

*Denotes Host School

**Denotes team within 400 miles of site, thus allowing them to avoid flying per NCAA regulations.

This bracket is much improved. We now avoid any intra-conference first round matchups, and only five teams have to fly, as opposed to eight. At this point, it makes sense to begin making changes to improve attendance in each of the respective regionals. For instance, it makes little sense to not place Wisconsin in Green Bay when we can easily do so. It also makes sense to place Notre Dame in Green Bay and Miami in St. Louis, as Miami is closer to St. Louis than Notre Dame and Notre Dame is closer to Green Bay than Miami. Thus, we get the following bracket:

East Regional-Bridgeport

1 (1). Yale (ECAC)*

4 (16). RIT (AH)**

2 (5). Merrimack (HE)**

3 (10). Michigan (CCHA)

West Regional-St. Louis

1 (3). North Dakota (WCHA)

4 (14). Rensselaer (ECAC)

2 (8). Nebraska-Omaha (WCHA)**
3 (11). Miami (CCHA)**

Midwest Regional-Green Bay

1 (2). Boston College (HE)

4 (15). Wisconsin (WCHA)**

2 (6). Minnesota-Duluth (WCHA)**

3 (9). Notre Dame (CCHA)**

Northeast Regional-Manchester

1 (4). Denver (WCHA)

4 (13). Dartmouth (ECAC)**

2 (7). Union (ECAC)**

3 (12). New Hampshire (HE)*

*Denotes Host School

**Denotes team within 400 miles of site, thus allowing them to avoid flying per NCAA regulations.

This bracket is pretty good. However, there is a significant issue left unresolved. The NCAA prefers putting 1-seeds in regions where they don't have to drive whenever possible, and Boston College is currently flying to Green Bay as opposed to driving to Manchester. Unfortunately, this cannot be rectified without making two 4-seeds fly, as placing Boston College in Manchester would force us to move Wisconsin to either Bridgeport or Manchester to avoid an intra-conference first round matchup. Such a move would, in turn, force whichever 4-seed Wisconsin replaces to drive as well. Because Manchester already has two teams from New Hampshire to draw fans there, as well as a team from upstate New York, I am inclined to believe that the NCAA would leave the bracket as is, because moving Wisconsin would mean sacrificing a major boon to attendance in Green Bay.

On the other hand, this issue disappears if we list Merrimack as a 1-seed instead of Denver, which the NCAA can justifiably do. As a preliminary bracket, let's take the current one, but switch Merrimack and Denver:

East Regional-Bridgeport

1 (1). Yale (ECAC)*

4 (16). RIT (AH)**

2 (5). Denver (WCHA)

3 (10). Michigan (CCHA)

West Regional-St. Louis

1 (3). North Dakota (WCHA)

4 (14). Rensselaer (ECAC)

2 (8). Nebraska-Omaha (WCHA)**
3 (11). Miami (CCHA)**

Midwest Regional-Green Bay

1 (2). Boston College (HE)

4 (15). Wisconsin (WCHA)**

2 (6). Minnesota-Duluth (WCHA)**

3 (9). Notre Dame (CCHA)**

Northeast Regional-Manchester

1 (4). Merrimack (HE)**

4 (13). Dartmouth (ECAC)**

2 (7). Union (ECAC)**

3 (12). New Hampshire (HE)*

*Denotes Host School

**Denotes team within 400 miles of site, thus allowing them to avoid flying per NCAA regulations.

We now have a lot more flexibility, as we can move around 1-seeds without taking Wisconsin away from Green Bay. As Boston College is seeded higher overall than Merrimack, we'll switch those two teams. We can also move Union to Bridgeport, which is about an hour closer to Union driving-wise and also addresses a potential attendance issue in Bridgeport. Thus, we are left with the following bracket:

East Regional-Bridgeport

1 (1). Yale (ECAC)*

4 (16). RIT (AH)**

2 (7). Union (ECAC)**

3 (10). Michigan (CCHA)

West Regional-St. Louis

1 (3). North Dakota (WCHA)

4 (14). Rensselaer (ECAC)

2 (8). Nebraska-Omaha (WCHA)**
3 (11). Miami (CCHA)**

Midwest Regional-Green Bay

1 (4). Merrimack (HE)

4 (15). Wisconsin (WCHA)**

2 (6). Minnesota-Duluth (WCHA)**

3 (9). Notre Dame (CCHA)**

Northeast Regional-Manchester

1 (2). Boston College (HE)**

4 (13). Dartmouth (ECAC)**

2 (5). Denver (WCHA)

3 (12). New Hampshire (HE)*

*Denotes Host School

**Denotes team within 400 miles of site, thus allowing them to avoid flying per NCAA regulations.

This bracket is pretty much as good as it can get. Only four teams are flying and there are potential draws at every regional. The only regional that looks like it will have any major issues attendance-wise is St. Louis, which is pretty much unavoidable because there aren't many good hockey teams near St. Louis. 

Bracketology: 2/9/11

During the latter half of every season, it is my intention to publish a projected NCAA Tournament bracket based on the current Pairwise Rankings every week.

The NCAA Hockey tournament has 16 spots. A slot is guaranteed to the five conference tournament winners. The remaining slots are filled with the highest ranked teams in the Pairwise. Each team is given an overall seed based on their rank in the Pairwise. Then, the teams are then divided into four seeding bands, that is to say the top 4 teams are given 1-seeds, the next four teams are given 2-seeds, and so on and so forth. These teams are then mixed and matched to form a bracket based on a variety of considerations including geography, attendance concerns, and bracket integrity. For instance, the NCAA tournament committee strives to keep schools within 400 miles by road from their tournament site, as NCAA rules mandate that teams fly to regionals over 400 miles away. Another important rule is that the school hosting a regional is guaranteed to play at that regional if they make the tournament. Finally, the NCAA cannot allow intra-conference first round games unless there are more than 5 teams from a conference in either the 1 and 4 seeding bands or the 2 and 3 seeding bands. All that said, I will now attempt to put together a bracket:

Overall Seeds based on Pairwise Rankings (Conference in Parenthesis)

1. Yale (ECAC)

2. Boston College (HE)

3 (3t)*. Minnesota-Duluth (WCHA)

4 (3t)*. New Hampshire (HE)

5 (5t)*. North Dakota (WCHA)

6 (5t)*. Denver (WCHA)

7 (7t)*. Rensselaer (ECAC)

8 (7t)*. Wisconsin (WCHA)

9 (9t)*. Union (ECAC)

10 (9t)*. Merrimack (HE)

11 (11t)*. Notre Dame (CCHA)

12 (11t)*. Michigan (CCHA)

13. Western Michigan (CCHA)

14. Nebraska-Omaha (WCHA)

15 (15t)**. Dartmouth (ECAC)

16 (NR). RIT (Projected AH Champion)

*These teams are tied in the Pairwise. Ties in the Pairwise are traditionally broken by overall RPI rank.

**Dartmouth currently is slotted into the 15th slot despite being tied with Miami and Boston U based on their slightly higher RPI rank. It should, however, be noted that Miami currently leads the CCHA standings and it would not be remotely surprising if they were to win the CCHA championship.

We can use this to form the following simple bracket:

Bridgeport

1 (1). Yale* (ECAC)

4 (16). RIT** (AH)

2 (8). Wisconsin (WCHA)

3 (9). Union** (ECAC)

Manchester

1 (4). New Hampshire* (HE)

4 (13). Western Michigan (CCHA)

2 (5). North Dakota (WCHA)

3 (12). Michigan (CCHA)

St. Louis

1 (2). Boston College (HE)

4 (15). Dartmouth (ECAC)

2 (7). Rensselaer (ECAC)

3 (10). Merrimack (HE)

Green Bay

1 (3). Minnesota-Duluth** (WCHA)

4 (14). Nebraska-Omaha (WCHA)

2 (6). Denver (WCHA)

3 (11). Notre Dame** (CCHA)

*Denotes that school is the host of the regional.

**Denotes that school is within 400 miles of the regional, thus allowing them to avoid flying.

This bracket is rife with issues. First of all, there is an intra-conference matchups in the Green Bay regional. Secondly, numerous regionals in this setup will simply not draw fans. For instance, it is highly doubtful that teams from New England and upstate New York will be able to draw a large number of fans to St. Louis for a college hockey game. And it should be noted that the NCAA demonstrated last year that attendance is of the utmost importance, when overall 12-seed Michigan was placed in the Fort Wayne regional to face overall 8-seed Bemidji State, just so that Fort Wayne could draw a crowd. Bearing this in mind, we can make a number of immediate changes to the bracket by sending eastern schools east wherever possible and keeping western schools west whenever possible:

Bridgeport

1 (1). Yale* (ECAC)

4 (16). RIT** (AH)

2 (8). Wisconsin (WCHA)

3 (9). Union** (ECAC)

Manchester

1 (4). New Hampshire* (HE)

4 (15). Dartmouth** (ECAC)

2 (7). Rensselaer** (ECAC)

3 (10). Merrimack** (HE)

St. Louis

1 (2). Boston College (HE)

4 (14). Nebraska-Omaha** (WCHA)

2 (5). North Dakota (WCHA)

3 (12). Michigan (CCHA)

Green Bay

1 (3). Minnesota-Duluth** (WCHA)

4 (13). Western Michigan** (CCHA)

2 (6). Denver (WCHA)

3 (11). Notre Dame** (CCHA)

*Denotes host school.

**Denotes that school is within 400 miles of the regional, thus allowing them to avoid flying.

This bracket is much improved. Instead of having only six teams within driving distance, we now have 11. Manchester is looking to be a great region attendance-wise, as three teams are within 100 miles of Manchester, and Rensselaer, the school with the farthest trek, is only 160 miles out. Furthermore, no first round intra-conference matchups. However, this is not to say that there can't be improvement. For instance, it would be quite beneficial to put Wisconsin in Green Bay for attendance purposes, as Wisconsin can easily draw fans there. So we'll switch Wisconsin and Denver. It also would be beneficial to have a second team in St. Louis that is within a reasonable driving distance to help boost attendance. There are no reasonable options among the 1 or 2 seeds and the 4-seed in the region is already within driving distance. However, we could switch Notre Dame with Michigan, as Notre Dame is approximately 6 1/2 hours away from St. Louis, whereas Michigan is about 9 hours away from St. Louis. As Green Bay has no real attendance concern with Minnesota-Duluth and Wisconsin in the regional, it makes sense to switch Notre Dame and Michigan. This results the following final bracket:

Bridgeport

1 (1). Yale* (ECAC)

4 (16). RIT** (AH)

2 (6). Denver (WCHA)

3 (9). Union** (ECAC)

Manchester

1 (4). New Hampshire* (HE)

4 (15). Dartmouth** (ECAC)

2 (7). Rensselaer** (ECAC)

3 (10). Merrimack** (HE)

St. Louis

1 (2). Boston College (HE)

4 (14). Nebraska-Omaha** (WCHA)

2 (5). North Dakota (WCHA)

3 (11). Notre Dame (CCHA)

Green Bay

1 (3). Minnesota-Duluth** (WCHA)

4 (13). Western Michigan** (CCHA)

2 (8). Wisconsin (WCHA)

3 (12). Michigan (CCHA)

*Denotes host school.

**Denotes that school is within 400 miles of the regional, thus allowing them to avoid flying.