To finish catching up on the major events I missed, here's a rundown of the major events in the WCHA.
1. Bemidji State had an poor finish to the regular season, going 0-3-1 against North Dakota and Minnesota. Consequentially, they fell below the TUC cliff. This has a major impact on the NCAA picture. North Dakota 4 wins in the TUC category, which presently is costing them the overall 2-seed to Boston College. Should Boston College and North Dakota both win out, their comparison will hinge on their TUC records, as North Dakota will have a better RPI and Boston College will have a better record against common opponents. Boston College will have the superior TUC record if Bemidji State winds up below the cliff and North Dakota will have the superior TUC record if Bemidji State winds up above the cliff. So the overall 2-seed could well hinge on how well Bemidji State performs in the WCHA tournament. Is this stupid and arbitrary? Yes. But that is how the Pairwise works.
Furthermore, Bemidji State's finish will affect several other teams. Wisconsin's fight for a tournament bid would be aided if Bemidji State winds up above the cliff, as they have a 2-0-0 record against Bemidji. On the other hand Nebraska-Omaha, Colorado College, and Union are rooting for Bemidji to lose, as they have 0-3-1, 0-1-1, and 0-1-0 records against Bemidji respectively. Colorado College is in a tough fight for an NCAA bid and Union will see a number of comparisons at risk, particularly, their comparison with Miami, should Bemidji finish above the cliff. Meanwhile, Nebraska-Omaha will face off with Bemidji in the first round of the WCHAs. Should UNO win the series, Bemidji will remain below the cliff. However, should they lose the series, UNO will be at risk of falling to a 3 or 4-seed, depending on whether or not Bemidji can remain above the cliff after the Final Five and how well everyone else does. As such, the Bemidji-UNO series ranks among the most important series in college hockey this weekend, as it will have a significant impact on the bubble, as well as the seeding of most teams securely in the tournament other than Yale, who controls their own destiny with regard to grabbing the overall 1-seed.
2. Minnesota State finished their regular season 1-3-0 against Minnesota-Duluth and Alaska-Anchorage, knocking them to the brink of falling off the TUC cliff and an opening series against Denver. This creates one of the stupid Pairwise scenarios where Denver will be better off winning the series 2-1 rather than sweeping it. Why? Because should Minnesota State win one game, they'll finish above the TUC cliff and Denver will be able to count what would be a 5-1-1 record against Minnesota State to their TUC record, making it 17-10-3. However, if they sweep Minnesota State, Denver will lose credit for their wins over Minnesota State in the TUC category and their TUC record will fall to 12-9-3. This would likely cost them comparisons with Union and Miami (assuming they win their series this weekend), knocking them into a three way tie for eighth in the Pairwise. While Denver could still recover their standing by winning the WCHA tournament, they would need Michigan, Merrimack, and Union to have some serious missteps to get a 1-seed. Furthermore, as they would automatically advance to the semis, a single loss in the Final Five could force them into a 3-seed. So this situation really sucks for Denver, although their situation wouldn't be so precarious if they had swept one of their previous four series (their loss to Michigan Tech being particularly egregious).
3. Colorado College finished 2-1-1, going 1-0-1 against Minnesota-Duluth and splitting on the road with Wisconsin. Minnesota-Duluth, who finished the regular season 3-4-3, is currently in position for a 3-seed, although they could easily rise in standing with a strong showing in the WCHA tournament. Colorado College's good finish to the regular season has them on the right side of the bubble, while Wisconsin's absolutely atrocious 1-6-1 finish to the regular season has them barely on the bubble. Colorado College and Wisconsin will face off in the first round of the WCHA tournament, with both team's tournament hopes riding on the outcome. Colorado College could conceivably claim a bid by winning the series, although they will probably need a win in the Final Five if they don't record a sweep. Wisconsin, on the other hand, will need to drive deep into the WCHA tournament if they are going to claim a bid, and may well need to win the whole thing.
4. Alaska-Anchorage had a strong 3-1-0 finish to the season against Alaska and Minnesota State. As such, they secured their status as a TUC. This is good news for Union and every WCHA team that is competing for or has secured a NCAA bid except Colorado College, who is 1-3-0 against Alaska-Anchorage. Alaska-Anchorage will travel to Minnesota in the first round of the WCHAs, a series Minnesota mut win (and probably sweep) to keep their at-large hopes alive.
Showing posts with label Pairwise. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pairwise. Show all posts
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Saturday, February 26, 2011
Friday Night RPI Update
With all of Friday's games except Alaska v. Alaska-Anchorage completed, here is a quick glance of the RPIs of three teams competing for tournament seeding:
Michigan's .0001 lead over Merrimack has Michigan tied with Merrimack for 4th in the Pairwise, putting them in line for a 1-seed. Notre Dame, meanwhile, is tied for 7th in the Pairwise with two other teams and is in line for the last 2-seed in the tournament. Needless to say, the Pairwise is incredibly volatile at the moment. Incidentally, should Alaska win tonight, Michigan will remain in fifth, Notre Dame will probably advance to sixth place, and Merrimack will wind up in seventh. But should Alaska tie or lose, Merrimack will wind up in fifth, Notre Dame will wind up sixth, and Michigan will wind up seventh. As of right now, Alaska leads 3-1 midway through the third period, which is good news for Michigan. While it is highly doubtful that this game will determine where these teams ultimately finish in the RPI and Pairwise, these teams will take any help they can get with their comparisons as close as they are.
| Rank | Team | RPI |
| 5 | Michigan | .5565 |
| 6 | Merrimack | .5564 |
| 7 | Notre Dame | .5563 |
Michigan's .0001 lead over Merrimack has Michigan tied with Merrimack for 4th in the Pairwise, putting them in line for a 1-seed. Notre Dame, meanwhile, is tied for 7th in the Pairwise with two other teams and is in line for the last 2-seed in the tournament. Needless to say, the Pairwise is incredibly volatile at the moment. Incidentally, should Alaska win tonight, Michigan will remain in fifth, Notre Dame will probably advance to sixth place, and Merrimack will wind up in seventh. But should Alaska tie or lose, Merrimack will wind up in fifth, Notre Dame will wind up sixth, and Michigan will wind up seventh. As of right now, Alaska leads 3-1 midway through the third period, which is good news for Michigan. While it is highly doubtful that this game will determine where these teams ultimately finish in the RPI and Pairwise, these teams will take any help they can get with their comparisons as close as they are.
Friday, February 18, 2011
Bracketology: 2/18/11
Last week saw major changes to the Pairwise rankings, including the huge jump by Merrimack after their sweep of New Hampshire. As such, here are the current teams projected to be in the tournament, along with their overall seed and conference:
1. Yale (ECAC)
2. Boston College (HE)
2. Boston College (HE)
3. North Dakota (WCHA)
4 (4t)*. Denver (WCHA)
5 (4t)*. Merrimack (HE)
6. Minnesota-Duluth (WCHA)
7 (7t)*. Union (ECAC)
8 (7t)*. Nebraska-Omaha (WCHA)
9 (9t)*. Notre Dame (CCHA)
10 (9t)*. Michigan (CCHA)
11 (9t)*. Miami (CCHA)
12 (12t)*. New Hampshire (HE)
13 (12t)*. Dartmouth (ECAC)
14. Rensselaer (ECAC)
15 (15t)**. Wisconsin (WCHA)
16. RIT (Projected AH champ)
*All ties in the Pairwise, such as Denver and Merrimack, traditionally go to the team with the higher RPI. However, the NCAA can also break the tie by favoring the team which wins the head-to-head comparison, which Merrimack wins against Denver.
**Wisconsin is tied with Western Michigan in the Pairwise, but wins all tiebreakers for the comparison, thus putting them in the tournament. Western Michigan cannot make it because the Atlantic Hockey Conference gets an autobid and no Atlantic Hockey team is in the top 15, meaning that their champion will be automatically slated as the last overall seed.
**Wisconsin is tied with Western Michigan in the Pairwise, but wins all tiebreakers for the comparison, thus putting them in the tournament. Western Michigan cannot make it because the Atlantic Hockey Conference gets an autobid and no Atlantic Hockey team is in the top 15, meaning that their champion will be automatically slated as the last overall seed.
To begin with, let's form a simple bracket in which we simply go with straight seeding:
East Regional-Bridgeport
1 (1). Yale (ECAC)*
4 (16). RIT (AH)**
2 (8). Nebraska-Omaha (WCHA)
3 (9). Notre Dame (CCHA)
West Regional-St. Louis
1 (2). Boston College (HE)
4 (15). Wisconsin (WCHA)**
2 (7). Union (ECAC)
3 (10). Michigan (CCHA)
Midwest Regional-Green Bay
1 (3). North Dakota (WCHA)
4 (14). Rensselaer (ECAC)
2 (6). Minnesota-Duluth (WCHA)**
3 (11). Miami (CCHA)**
Northeast Regional-Manchester
1 (4). Denver (WCHA)
4 (13). Dartmouth (ECAC)**
2 (5). Merrimack (HE)**
3 (12). New Hampshire (HE)*
*Denotes Host School. Host schools are automatically placed in the regional that they are hosting should they make the tournament. New Hampshire, for instance, is automatically placed in the Manchester Regional which they are hosting. On the other hand, Michigan Tech is hosting the Green Bay regional, but they will not be placed there as they will not make the tournament short of a miraculous run to win the WCHA tournament.
**Denotes team within 400 miles of site, thus allowing them to avoid flying per NCAA regulations.
This bracket has a myriad of problems. First of all, Merrimack cannot face New Hampshire in the first round by rule as that would be a intra-conference first-round matchup. Second of all, a lot of teams are flying that don't need to be. With some simple changes, such as switching Notre Dame with Michigan, we can rectify this issue. Thus, we produce this bracket:
We now have a lot more flexibility, as we can move around 1-seeds without taking Wisconsin away from Green Bay. As Boston College is seeded higher overall than Merrimack, we'll switch those two teams. We can also move Union to Bridgeport, which is about an hour closer to Union driving-wise and also addresses a potential attendance issue in Bridgeport. Thus, we are left with the following bracket:
East Regional-Bridgeport
1 (1). Yale (ECAC)*
4 (16). RIT (AH)**
2 (8). Nebraska-Omaha (WCHA)
3 (9). Notre Dame (CCHA)
West Regional-St. Louis
1 (2). Boston College (HE)
4 (15). Wisconsin (WCHA)**
2 (7). Union (ECAC)
3 (10). Michigan (CCHA)
Midwest Regional-Green Bay
1 (3). North Dakota (WCHA)
4 (14). Rensselaer (ECAC)
2 (6). Minnesota-Duluth (WCHA)**
3 (11). Miami (CCHA)**
Northeast Regional-Manchester
1 (4). Denver (WCHA)
4 (13). Dartmouth (ECAC)**
2 (5). Merrimack (HE)**
3 (12). New Hampshire (HE)*
*Denotes Host School. Host schools are automatically placed in the regional that they are hosting should they make the tournament. New Hampshire, for instance, is automatically placed in the Manchester Regional which they are hosting. On the other hand, Michigan Tech is hosting the Green Bay regional, but they will not be placed there as they will not make the tournament short of a miraculous run to win the WCHA tournament.
**Denotes team within 400 miles of site, thus allowing them to avoid flying per NCAA regulations.
This bracket has a myriad of problems. First of all, Merrimack cannot face New Hampshire in the first round by rule as that would be a intra-conference first-round matchup. Second of all, a lot of teams are flying that don't need to be. With some simple changes, such as switching Notre Dame with Michigan, we can rectify this issue. Thus, we produce this bracket:
East Regional-Bridgeport
1 (1). Yale (ECAC)*
4 (16). RIT (AH)**
2 (5). Merrimack (HE)**
3 (10). Michigan (CCHA)
West Regional-St. Louis
1 (2). Boston College (HE)
4 (15). Wisconsin (WCHA)**
2 (8). Nebraska-Omaha (WCHA)**
3 (9). Notre Dame (CCHA)**
3 (9). Notre Dame (CCHA)**
Midwest Regional-Green Bay
1 (3). North Dakota (WCHA)
4 (14). Rensselaer (ECAC)
2 (6). Minnesota-Duluth (WCHA)**
3 (11). Miami (CCHA)**
Northeast Regional-Manchester
1 (4). Denver (WCHA)
4 (13). Dartmouth (ECAC)**
2 (7). Union (ECAC)**
3 (12). New Hampshire (HE)*
*Denotes Host School
**Denotes team within 400 miles of site, thus allowing them to avoid flying per NCAA regulations.
This bracket is much improved. We now avoid any intra-conference first round matchups, and only five teams have to fly, as opposed to eight. At this point, it makes sense to begin making changes to improve attendance in each of the respective regionals. For instance, it makes little sense to not place Wisconsin in Green Bay when we can easily do so. It also makes sense to place Notre Dame in Green Bay and Miami in St. Louis, as Miami is closer to St. Louis than Notre Dame and Notre Dame is closer to Green Bay than Miami. Thus, we get the following bracket:
East Regional-Bridgeport
1 (1). Yale (ECAC)*
4 (16). RIT (AH)**
2 (5). Merrimack (HE)**
3 (10). Michigan (CCHA)
West Regional-St. Louis
1 (3). North Dakota (WCHA)
4 (14). Rensselaer (ECAC)
2 (8). Nebraska-Omaha (WCHA)**
3 (11). Miami (CCHA)**
3 (11). Miami (CCHA)**
Midwest Regional-Green Bay
1 (2). Boston College (HE)
4 (15). Wisconsin (WCHA)**
2 (6). Minnesota-Duluth (WCHA)**
3 (9). Notre Dame (CCHA)**
Northeast Regional-Manchester
1 (4). Denver (WCHA)
4 (13). Dartmouth (ECAC)**
2 (7). Union (ECAC)**
3 (12). New Hampshire (HE)*
*Denotes Host School
**Denotes team within 400 miles of site, thus allowing them to avoid flying per NCAA regulations.
This bracket is pretty good. However, there is a significant issue left unresolved. The NCAA prefers putting 1-seeds in regions where they don't have to drive whenever possible, and Boston College is currently flying to Green Bay as opposed to driving to Manchester. Unfortunately, this cannot be rectified without making two 4-seeds fly, as placing Boston College in Manchester would force us to move Wisconsin to either Bridgeport or Manchester to avoid an intra-conference first round matchup. Such a move would, in turn, force whichever 4-seed Wisconsin replaces to drive as well. Because Manchester already has two teams from New Hampshire to draw fans there, as well as a team from upstate New York, I am inclined to believe that the NCAA would leave the bracket as is, because moving Wisconsin would mean sacrificing a major boon to attendance in Green Bay.
On the other hand, this issue disappears if we list Merrimack as a 1-seed instead of Denver, which the NCAA can justifiably do. As a preliminary bracket, let's take the current one, but switch Merrimack and Denver:
East Regional-Bridgeport
1 (1). Yale (ECAC)*
4 (16). RIT (AH)**
2 (5). Denver (WCHA)
3 (10). Michigan (CCHA)
West Regional-St. Louis
1 (3). North Dakota (WCHA)
4 (14). Rensselaer (ECAC)
2 (8). Nebraska-Omaha (WCHA)**
3 (11). Miami (CCHA)**
3 (11). Miami (CCHA)**
Midwest Regional-Green Bay
1 (2). Boston College (HE)
4 (15). Wisconsin (WCHA)**
2 (6). Minnesota-Duluth (WCHA)**
3 (9). Notre Dame (CCHA)**
Northeast Regional-Manchester
1 (4). Merrimack (HE)**
4 (13). Dartmouth (ECAC)**
2 (7). Union (ECAC)**
3 (12). New Hampshire (HE)*
*Denotes Host School
**Denotes team within 400 miles of site, thus allowing them to avoid flying per NCAA regulations.
We now have a lot more flexibility, as we can move around 1-seeds without taking Wisconsin away from Green Bay. As Boston College is seeded higher overall than Merrimack, we'll switch those two teams. We can also move Union to Bridgeport, which is about an hour closer to Union driving-wise and also addresses a potential attendance issue in Bridgeport. Thus, we are left with the following bracket:
East Regional-Bridgeport
1 (1). Yale (ECAC)*
4 (16). RIT (AH)**
2 (7). Union (ECAC)**
3 (10). Michigan (CCHA)
West Regional-St. Louis
1 (3). North Dakota (WCHA)
4 (14). Rensselaer (ECAC)
2 (8). Nebraska-Omaha (WCHA)**
3 (11). Miami (CCHA)**
3 (11). Miami (CCHA)**
Midwest Regional-Green Bay
1 (4). Merrimack (HE)
4 (15). Wisconsin (WCHA)**
2 (6). Minnesota-Duluth (WCHA)**
3 (9). Notre Dame (CCHA)**
Northeast Regional-Manchester
1 (2). Boston College (HE)**
4 (13). Dartmouth (ECAC)**
2 (5). Denver (WCHA)
3 (12). New Hampshire (HE)*
*Denotes Host School
**Denotes team within 400 miles of site, thus allowing them to avoid flying per NCAA regulations.
This bracket is pretty much as good as it can get. Only four teams are flying and there are potential draws at every regional. The only regional that looks like it will have any major issues attendance-wise is St. Louis, which is pretty much unavoidable because there aren't many good hockey teams near St. Louis.
Friday, February 11, 2011
Series Worthy of Attention this Weekend
As we near the end of the season, the importance of various games in the NCAA tournament picture becomes clear. The most important of these occur between teams on the bubble, for obvious reasons, and teams near the .5000 RPI cutoff which determines whether a team will be considered in the Pairwise Rankings*. As such, here is a list of games that merit special attention this weekend:
*Record against such teams is one of the factors considered in the Pairwise rankings. Such teams are referred to as Teams under Consideration, or TUCs.
Atlantic Hockey
Canisius vs. RIT (Home and Home): RIT has a .5012 RPI. A split could cause RIT to fall below .5000. Should this happen, both Union and Renssalaer will be at risk of dropping in the Pairwise, as both teams have a win over RIT and have played only 15 and 13 games against TUCs, meaning that losing a single game in the win column could have far-reaching adverse effects.
Mercyhurst vs. Robert Morris (Home and Home): Robert Morris is in a similar position to RIT in that they could also easily drop below .5000 in the RPI this weekend. Should this happen, North Dakota, who is in a tight battle for a 1-seed, would lose two wins over TUCs. This could be highly detrimental to their chances.
CCHA
Northern Michigan at Michigan State: Northern Michigan sits just below .5000. Michigan State sits just above .5000. This series, therefore, could impact a large number of teams. The teams that will be most affected are fellow CCHA teams Miami, Michigan, Notre Dame, and Western Michigan, all of whom are on the NCAA bubble.
Ohio State at Michigan: Michigan is riding a 3-game losing streak that has dropped them from contending for a 1-seed to the NCAA bubble. As Ohio State is a TUC, Michigan really needs a strong series to help secure a NCAA bid.
Western Michigan at Miami: Western Michigan is on the right side of the NCAA bubble. Miami is on the wrong side. Miami will look to flip their respective positions after coming off a sweep of Michigan last weekend.
ECAC
Quinnipiac at Dartmouth (Friday), Princeton at Dartmouth (Saturday): Dartmouth is currently listed as the last team into the tournament and will need to finish the season very strong to make it. Quinnipiac, for its part, sits just below .5000 and could make a big impact on the ECAC teams in the Pairwise if they can rise above .5000 by getting a win or tie on Friday.
Hockey East
Merrimack vs. New Hampshire (Home and Home): This is the most important series of the weekend. New Hampshire is currently in a tight battle for one of three 1-seeds (assuming the overall 1-seed will go to Yale, who holds a solid lead over everyone in the Pairwise) with Boston College, Minnesota-Duluth, North Dakota, and Denver. Sweeping Merrimack would do a lot to help their cause. Merrimack, meanwhile, needs a strong showing this weekend, as they only have 9 games against TUCs thus far, meaning that this series could greatly elevate their standing or drop them to the NCAA bubble.
WCHA
Alaska-Anchorage at North Dakota: North Dakota is battling for a 1-seed and needs to sweep teams like Alaska-Anchorage if they are going to get one. Alaska-Anchorage, meanwhile, is at risk of falling below .5000, which would have a somewhat significant impact on every WCHA team in Pairwise.
Wisconsin at Nebraska-Omaha: Nebraska-Omaha is on the NCAA bubble and cannot afford to be swept by Wisconsin this weekend, although a split will likely keep them on the right side of the bubble for now. A sweep of Wisconsin, on the other hand, would go a long way towards securing a bid to the tournament.
*Record against such teams is one of the factors considered in the Pairwise rankings. Such teams are referred to as Teams under Consideration, or TUCs.
Atlantic Hockey
Canisius vs. RIT (Home and Home): RIT has a .5012 RPI. A split could cause RIT to fall below .5000. Should this happen, both Union and Renssalaer will be at risk of dropping in the Pairwise, as both teams have a win over RIT and have played only 15 and 13 games against TUCs, meaning that losing a single game in the win column could have far-reaching adverse effects.
Mercyhurst vs. Robert Morris (Home and Home): Robert Morris is in a similar position to RIT in that they could also easily drop below .5000 in the RPI this weekend. Should this happen, North Dakota, who is in a tight battle for a 1-seed, would lose two wins over TUCs. This could be highly detrimental to their chances.
CCHA
Northern Michigan at Michigan State: Northern Michigan sits just below .5000. Michigan State sits just above .5000. This series, therefore, could impact a large number of teams. The teams that will be most affected are fellow CCHA teams Miami, Michigan, Notre Dame, and Western Michigan, all of whom are on the NCAA bubble.
Ohio State at Michigan: Michigan is riding a 3-game losing streak that has dropped them from contending for a 1-seed to the NCAA bubble. As Ohio State is a TUC, Michigan really needs a strong series to help secure a NCAA bid.
Western Michigan at Miami: Western Michigan is on the right side of the NCAA bubble. Miami is on the wrong side. Miami will look to flip their respective positions after coming off a sweep of Michigan last weekend.
ECAC
Quinnipiac at Dartmouth (Friday), Princeton at Dartmouth (Saturday): Dartmouth is currently listed as the last team into the tournament and will need to finish the season very strong to make it. Quinnipiac, for its part, sits just below .5000 and could make a big impact on the ECAC teams in the Pairwise if they can rise above .5000 by getting a win or tie on Friday.
Hockey East
Merrimack vs. New Hampshire (Home and Home): This is the most important series of the weekend. New Hampshire is currently in a tight battle for one of three 1-seeds (assuming the overall 1-seed will go to Yale, who holds a solid lead over everyone in the Pairwise) with Boston College, Minnesota-Duluth, North Dakota, and Denver. Sweeping Merrimack would do a lot to help their cause. Merrimack, meanwhile, needs a strong showing this weekend, as they only have 9 games against TUCs thus far, meaning that this series could greatly elevate their standing or drop them to the NCAA bubble.
WCHA
Alaska-Anchorage at North Dakota: North Dakota is battling for a 1-seed and needs to sweep teams like Alaska-Anchorage if they are going to get one. Alaska-Anchorage, meanwhile, is at risk of falling below .5000, which would have a somewhat significant impact on every WCHA team in Pairwise.
Wisconsin at Nebraska-Omaha: Nebraska-Omaha is on the NCAA bubble and cannot afford to be swept by Wisconsin this weekend, although a split will likely keep them on the right side of the bubble for now. A sweep of Wisconsin, on the other hand, would go a long way towards securing a bid to the tournament.
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
Bracketology: 2/9/11
During the latter half of every season, it is my intention to publish a projected NCAA Tournament bracket based on the current Pairwise Rankings every week.
*Denotes that school is the host of the regional.
*Denotes host school.
The NCAA Hockey tournament has 16 spots. A slot is guaranteed to the five conference tournament winners. The remaining slots are filled with the highest ranked teams in the Pairwise. Each team is given an overall seed based on their rank in the Pairwise. Then, the teams are then divided into four seeding bands, that is to say the top 4 teams are given 1-seeds, the next four teams are given 2-seeds, and so on and so forth. These teams are then mixed and matched to form a bracket based on a variety of considerations including geography, attendance concerns, and bracket integrity. For instance, the NCAA tournament committee strives to keep schools within 400 miles by road from their tournament site, as NCAA rules mandate that teams fly to regionals over 400 miles away. Another important rule is that the school hosting a regional is guaranteed to play at that regional if they make the tournament. Finally, the NCAA cannot allow intra-conference first round games unless there are more than 5 teams from a conference in either the 1 and 4 seeding bands or the 2 and 3 seeding bands. All that said, I will now attempt to put together a bracket:
Overall Seeds based on Pairwise Rankings (Conference in Parenthesis)
1. Yale (ECAC)
2. Boston College (HE)
3 (3t)*. Minnesota-Duluth (WCHA)
4 (3t)*. New Hampshire (HE)
5 (5t)*. North Dakota (WCHA)
6 (5t)*. Denver (WCHA)
7 (7t)*. Rensselaer (ECAC)
8 (7t)*. Wisconsin (WCHA)
9 (9t)*. Union (ECAC)
10 (9t)*. Merrimack (HE)
11 (11t)*. Notre Dame (CCHA)
12 (11t)*. Michigan (CCHA)
13. Western Michigan (CCHA)
14. Nebraska-Omaha (WCHA)
15 (15t)**. Dartmouth (ECAC)
16 (NR). RIT (Projected AH Champion)
*These teams are tied in the Pairwise. Ties in the Pairwise are traditionally broken by overall RPI rank.
**Dartmouth currently is slotted into the 15th slot despite being tied with Miami and Boston U based on their slightly higher RPI rank. It should, however, be noted that Miami currently leads the CCHA standings and it would not be remotely surprising if they were to win the CCHA championship.
We can use this to form the following simple bracket:
Bridgeport
1 (1). Yale* (ECAC)
4 (16). RIT** (AH)
2 (8). Wisconsin (WCHA)
3 (9). Union** (ECAC)
Manchester
1 (4). New Hampshire* (HE)
4 (13). Western Michigan (CCHA)
2 (5). North Dakota (WCHA)
3 (12). Michigan (CCHA)
St. Louis
1 (2). Boston College (HE)
4 (15). Dartmouth (ECAC)
2 (7). Rensselaer (ECAC)
3 (10). Merrimack (HE)
Green Bay
1 (3). Minnesota-Duluth** (WCHA)
4 (14). Nebraska-Omaha (WCHA)
2 (6). Denver (WCHA)
3 (11). Notre Dame** (CCHA)
*Denotes that school is the host of the regional.
**Denotes that school is within 400 miles of the regional, thus allowing them to avoid flying.
This bracket is rife with issues. First of all, there is an intra-conference matchups in the Green Bay regional. Secondly, numerous regionals in this setup will simply not draw fans. For instance, it is highly doubtful that teams from New England and upstate New York will be able to draw a large number of fans to St. Louis for a college hockey game. And it should be noted that the NCAA demonstrated last year that attendance is of the utmost importance, when overall 12-seed Michigan was placed in the Fort Wayne regional to face overall 8-seed Bemidji State, just so that Fort Wayne could draw a crowd. Bearing this in mind, we can make a number of immediate changes to the bracket by sending eastern schools east wherever possible and keeping western schools west whenever possible:
Bridgeport
1 (1). Yale* (ECAC)
4 (16). RIT** (AH)
2 (8). Wisconsin (WCHA)
3 (9). Union** (ECAC)
Manchester
1 (4). New Hampshire* (HE)
4 (15). Dartmouth** (ECAC)
2 (7). Rensselaer** (ECAC)
3 (10). Merrimack** (HE)
St. Louis
1 (2). Boston College (HE)
4 (14). Nebraska-Omaha** (WCHA)
2 (5). North Dakota (WCHA)
3 (12). Michigan (CCHA)
Green Bay
1 (3). Minnesota-Duluth** (WCHA)
4 (13). Western Michigan** (CCHA)
2 (6). Denver (WCHA)
3 (11). Notre Dame** (CCHA)
*Denotes host school.
**Denotes that school is within 400 miles of the regional, thus allowing them to avoid flying.
This bracket is much improved. Instead of having only six teams within driving distance, we now have 11. Manchester is looking to be a great region attendance-wise, as three teams are within 100 miles of Manchester, and Rensselaer, the school with the farthest trek, is only 160 miles out. Furthermore, no first round intra-conference matchups. However, this is not to say that there can't be improvement. For instance, it would be quite beneficial to put Wisconsin in Green Bay for attendance purposes, as Wisconsin can easily draw fans there. So we'll switch Wisconsin and Denver. It also would be beneficial to have a second team in St. Louis that is within a reasonable driving distance to help boost attendance. There are no reasonable options among the 1 or 2 seeds and the 4-seed in the region is already within driving distance. However, we could switch Notre Dame with Michigan, as Notre Dame is approximately 6 1/2 hours away from St. Louis, whereas Michigan is about 9 hours away from St. Louis. As Green Bay has no real attendance concern with Minnesota-Duluth and Wisconsin in the regional, it makes sense to switch Notre Dame and Michigan. This results the following final bracket:
Bridgeport
1 (1). Yale* (ECAC)
4 (16). RIT** (AH)
2 (6). Denver (WCHA)
3 (9). Union** (ECAC)
Manchester
1 (4). New Hampshire* (HE)
4 (15). Dartmouth** (ECAC)
2 (7). Rensselaer** (ECAC)
3 (10). Merrimack** (HE)
St. Louis
1 (2). Boston College (HE)
4 (14). Nebraska-Omaha** (WCHA)
2 (5). North Dakota (WCHA)
3 (11). Notre Dame (CCHA)
Green Bay
1 (3). Minnesota-Duluth** (WCHA)
4 (13). Western Michigan** (CCHA)
2 (8). Wisconsin (WCHA)
3 (12). Michigan (CCHA)
*Denotes host school.
**Denotes that school is within 400 miles of the regional, thus allowing them to avoid flying.
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