1. Yale (ECAC)
2. Boston College (HE)
2. Boston College (HE)
3. North Dakota (WCHA)
4 (4t)*. Denver (WCHA)
5 (4t)*. Merrimack (HE)
6. Minnesota-Duluth (WCHA)
7 (7t)*. Union (ECAC)
8 (7t)*. Nebraska-Omaha (WCHA)
9 (9t)*. Notre Dame (CCHA)
10 (9t)*. Michigan (CCHA)
11 (9t)*. Miami (CCHA)
12 (12t)*. New Hampshire (HE)
13 (12t)*. Dartmouth (ECAC)
14. Rensselaer (ECAC)
15 (15t)**. Wisconsin (WCHA)
16. RIT (Projected AH champ)
*All ties in the Pairwise, such as Denver and Merrimack, traditionally go to the team with the higher RPI. However, the NCAA can also break the tie by favoring the team which wins the head-to-head comparison, which Merrimack wins against Denver.
**Wisconsin is tied with Western Michigan in the Pairwise, but wins all tiebreakers for the comparison, thus putting them in the tournament. Western Michigan cannot make it because the Atlantic Hockey Conference gets an autobid and no Atlantic Hockey team is in the top 15, meaning that their champion will be automatically slated as the last overall seed.
**Wisconsin is tied with Western Michigan in the Pairwise, but wins all tiebreakers for the comparison, thus putting them in the tournament. Western Michigan cannot make it because the Atlantic Hockey Conference gets an autobid and no Atlantic Hockey team is in the top 15, meaning that their champion will be automatically slated as the last overall seed.
To begin with, let's form a simple bracket in which we simply go with straight seeding:
East Regional-Bridgeport
1 (1). Yale (ECAC)*
4 (16). RIT (AH)**
2 (8). Nebraska-Omaha (WCHA)
3 (9). Notre Dame (CCHA)
West Regional-St. Louis
1 (2). Boston College (HE)
4 (15). Wisconsin (WCHA)**
2 (7). Union (ECAC)
3 (10). Michigan (CCHA)
Midwest Regional-Green Bay
1 (3). North Dakota (WCHA)
4 (14). Rensselaer (ECAC)
2 (6). Minnesota-Duluth (WCHA)**
3 (11). Miami (CCHA)**
Northeast Regional-Manchester
1 (4). Denver (WCHA)
4 (13). Dartmouth (ECAC)**
2 (5). Merrimack (HE)**
3 (12). New Hampshire (HE)*
*Denotes Host School. Host schools are automatically placed in the regional that they are hosting should they make the tournament. New Hampshire, for instance, is automatically placed in the Manchester Regional which they are hosting. On the other hand, Michigan Tech is hosting the Green Bay regional, but they will not be placed there as they will not make the tournament short of a miraculous run to win the WCHA tournament.
**Denotes team within 400 miles of site, thus allowing them to avoid flying per NCAA regulations.
This bracket has a myriad of problems. First of all, Merrimack cannot face New Hampshire in the first round by rule as that would be a intra-conference first-round matchup. Second of all, a lot of teams are flying that don't need to be. With some simple changes, such as switching Notre Dame with Michigan, we can rectify this issue. Thus, we produce this bracket:
We now have a lot more flexibility, as we can move around 1-seeds without taking Wisconsin away from Green Bay. As Boston College is seeded higher overall than Merrimack, we'll switch those two teams. We can also move Union to Bridgeport, which is about an hour closer to Union driving-wise and also addresses a potential attendance issue in Bridgeport. Thus, we are left with the following bracket:
East Regional-Bridgeport
1 (1). Yale (ECAC)*
4 (16). RIT (AH)**
2 (8). Nebraska-Omaha (WCHA)
3 (9). Notre Dame (CCHA)
West Regional-St. Louis
1 (2). Boston College (HE)
4 (15). Wisconsin (WCHA)**
2 (7). Union (ECAC)
3 (10). Michigan (CCHA)
Midwest Regional-Green Bay
1 (3). North Dakota (WCHA)
4 (14). Rensselaer (ECAC)
2 (6). Minnesota-Duluth (WCHA)**
3 (11). Miami (CCHA)**
Northeast Regional-Manchester
1 (4). Denver (WCHA)
4 (13). Dartmouth (ECAC)**
2 (5). Merrimack (HE)**
3 (12). New Hampshire (HE)*
*Denotes Host School. Host schools are automatically placed in the regional that they are hosting should they make the tournament. New Hampshire, for instance, is automatically placed in the Manchester Regional which they are hosting. On the other hand, Michigan Tech is hosting the Green Bay regional, but they will not be placed there as they will not make the tournament short of a miraculous run to win the WCHA tournament.
**Denotes team within 400 miles of site, thus allowing them to avoid flying per NCAA regulations.
This bracket has a myriad of problems. First of all, Merrimack cannot face New Hampshire in the first round by rule as that would be a intra-conference first-round matchup. Second of all, a lot of teams are flying that don't need to be. With some simple changes, such as switching Notre Dame with Michigan, we can rectify this issue. Thus, we produce this bracket:
East Regional-Bridgeport
1 (1). Yale (ECAC)*
4 (16). RIT (AH)**
2 (5). Merrimack (HE)**
3 (10). Michigan (CCHA)
West Regional-St. Louis
1 (2). Boston College (HE)
4 (15). Wisconsin (WCHA)**
2 (8). Nebraska-Omaha (WCHA)**
3 (9). Notre Dame (CCHA)**
3 (9). Notre Dame (CCHA)**
Midwest Regional-Green Bay
1 (3). North Dakota (WCHA)
4 (14). Rensselaer (ECAC)
2 (6). Minnesota-Duluth (WCHA)**
3 (11). Miami (CCHA)**
Northeast Regional-Manchester
1 (4). Denver (WCHA)
4 (13). Dartmouth (ECAC)**
2 (7). Union (ECAC)**
3 (12). New Hampshire (HE)*
*Denotes Host School
**Denotes team within 400 miles of site, thus allowing them to avoid flying per NCAA regulations.
This bracket is much improved. We now avoid any intra-conference first round matchups, and only five teams have to fly, as opposed to eight. At this point, it makes sense to begin making changes to improve attendance in each of the respective regionals. For instance, it makes little sense to not place Wisconsin in Green Bay when we can easily do so. It also makes sense to place Notre Dame in Green Bay and Miami in St. Louis, as Miami is closer to St. Louis than Notre Dame and Notre Dame is closer to Green Bay than Miami. Thus, we get the following bracket:
East Regional-Bridgeport
1 (1). Yale (ECAC)*
4 (16). RIT (AH)**
2 (5). Merrimack (HE)**
3 (10). Michigan (CCHA)
West Regional-St. Louis
1 (3). North Dakota (WCHA)
4 (14). Rensselaer (ECAC)
2 (8). Nebraska-Omaha (WCHA)**
3 (11). Miami (CCHA)**
3 (11). Miami (CCHA)**
Midwest Regional-Green Bay
1 (2). Boston College (HE)
4 (15). Wisconsin (WCHA)**
2 (6). Minnesota-Duluth (WCHA)**
3 (9). Notre Dame (CCHA)**
Northeast Regional-Manchester
1 (4). Denver (WCHA)
4 (13). Dartmouth (ECAC)**
2 (7). Union (ECAC)**
3 (12). New Hampshire (HE)*
*Denotes Host School
**Denotes team within 400 miles of site, thus allowing them to avoid flying per NCAA regulations.
This bracket is pretty good. However, there is a significant issue left unresolved. The NCAA prefers putting 1-seeds in regions where they don't have to drive whenever possible, and Boston College is currently flying to Green Bay as opposed to driving to Manchester. Unfortunately, this cannot be rectified without making two 4-seeds fly, as placing Boston College in Manchester would force us to move Wisconsin to either Bridgeport or Manchester to avoid an intra-conference first round matchup. Such a move would, in turn, force whichever 4-seed Wisconsin replaces to drive as well. Because Manchester already has two teams from New Hampshire to draw fans there, as well as a team from upstate New York, I am inclined to believe that the NCAA would leave the bracket as is, because moving Wisconsin would mean sacrificing a major boon to attendance in Green Bay.
On the other hand, this issue disappears if we list Merrimack as a 1-seed instead of Denver, which the NCAA can justifiably do. As a preliminary bracket, let's take the current one, but switch Merrimack and Denver:
East Regional-Bridgeport
1 (1). Yale (ECAC)*
4 (16). RIT (AH)**
2 (5). Denver (WCHA)
3 (10). Michigan (CCHA)
West Regional-St. Louis
1 (3). North Dakota (WCHA)
4 (14). Rensselaer (ECAC)
2 (8). Nebraska-Omaha (WCHA)**
3 (11). Miami (CCHA)**
3 (11). Miami (CCHA)**
Midwest Regional-Green Bay
1 (2). Boston College (HE)
4 (15). Wisconsin (WCHA)**
2 (6). Minnesota-Duluth (WCHA)**
3 (9). Notre Dame (CCHA)**
Northeast Regional-Manchester
1 (4). Merrimack (HE)**
4 (13). Dartmouth (ECAC)**
2 (7). Union (ECAC)**
3 (12). New Hampshire (HE)*
*Denotes Host School
**Denotes team within 400 miles of site, thus allowing them to avoid flying per NCAA regulations.
We now have a lot more flexibility, as we can move around 1-seeds without taking Wisconsin away from Green Bay. As Boston College is seeded higher overall than Merrimack, we'll switch those two teams. We can also move Union to Bridgeport, which is about an hour closer to Union driving-wise and also addresses a potential attendance issue in Bridgeport. Thus, we are left with the following bracket:
East Regional-Bridgeport
1 (1). Yale (ECAC)*
4 (16). RIT (AH)**
2 (7). Union (ECAC)**
3 (10). Michigan (CCHA)
West Regional-St. Louis
1 (3). North Dakota (WCHA)
4 (14). Rensselaer (ECAC)
2 (8). Nebraska-Omaha (WCHA)**
3 (11). Miami (CCHA)**
3 (11). Miami (CCHA)**
Midwest Regional-Green Bay
1 (4). Merrimack (HE)
4 (15). Wisconsin (WCHA)**
2 (6). Minnesota-Duluth (WCHA)**
3 (9). Notre Dame (CCHA)**
Northeast Regional-Manchester
1 (2). Boston College (HE)**
4 (13). Dartmouth (ECAC)**
2 (5). Denver (WCHA)
3 (12). New Hampshire (HE)*
*Denotes Host School
**Denotes team within 400 miles of site, thus allowing them to avoid flying per NCAA regulations.
This bracket is pretty much as good as it can get. Only four teams are flying and there are potential draws at every regional. The only regional that looks like it will have any major issues attendance-wise is St. Louis, which is pretty much unavoidable because there aren't many good hockey teams near St. Louis.
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